| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.0% | 22% | +32.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 79.3% | 84% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.2% | 28% | +41.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 76% | -19.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.4% | 25.6% | 39.0% |
| xgboost | 24.9% | 24.5% | 50.6% |
| logistic | 12.7% | 11.5% | 75.8% |
| Graafschap | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1597 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1597 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2704 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 2 | D |
| 27 Sep | H | FC Den Bosch | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | NAC Breda | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 May | H | Ajax | 1 - 4 | L |
| 12 May | A | Vitesse | 1 - 6 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Feyenoord | 0 - 5 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Excelsior | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 - 3 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 6 | L |
| 17 Feb 2019 | Graafschap | 0 - 1 | Utrecht |
| 25 Nov 2018 | Utrecht | 5 - 0 | Graafschap |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.34 | 74.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |