| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 41.4% | 42% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 72.3% | 75% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.1% | 60% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 60% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.2% | 30.7% | 32.1% |
| xgboost | 37.7% | 30.2% | 32.1% |
| logistic | 34.4% | 30.1% | 35.5% |
| Padova | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1411 | 1424 |
| Surface Elo | 1411 | 1424 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cittadella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | AC Renate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Lazio | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Sampdoria | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Juve Stabia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Juve Stabia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Sudtirol | 3 - 0 | Padova |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Padova | 1 - 1 | Sudtirol |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |