| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 78.9% | 78% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| logistic | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Alycia Parks | Leylah Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1509 | 1650 |
| Surface Elo | 1509 | 1650 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Leylah Fernandez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Mei Yamaguchi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Sara Bejlek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Sara Bejlek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Varvara Lepchenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Kyoka Okamura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Talia Gibson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Maja Chwalinska | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Mirra Andreeva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alycia Parks | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Alycia Parks | 0 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 24 May 2026 | Alycia Parks | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Alycia Parks | 0 - 2 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Alycia Parks | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.29 | 77.5% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 23 Sep 06:15 |