| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.8% | 67% | -8.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| logistic | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Zsombor Piros | Tristan Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1769 | 1632 |
| Surface Elo | 1769 | 1632 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Sebastian Gorzny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Spencer Johnson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Tristan Boyer | 1 - 2 | Zsombor Piros |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 05 Oct 06:15 |