| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.3% | 46% | +5.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.5% | 78% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.7% | 63% | +3.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 56% | -5.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.4% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| xgboost | 42.9% | 27.8% | 29.3% |
| logistic | 40.8% | 28.7% | 30.5% |
| Swindon | Accrington | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1452 | 1342 |
| Surface Elo | 1452 | 1342 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Salford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Salford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | York | 0 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Colchester | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Sunderland | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Newport County | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Barnet | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Swindon | 2 - 2 | Accrington |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Accrington | 4 - 0 | Swindon |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Swindon | 0 - 0 | Accrington |
| 16 Nov 2024 | Accrington | 2 - 2 | Swindon |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Swindon | 1 - 2 | Accrington |
| 28 Nov 2023 | Accrington | 3 - 4 | Swindon |
| 06 Mar 2021 | Accrington | 2 - 1 | Swindon |
| 17 Nov 2020 | Swindon | 0 - 3 | Accrington |
| 05 May 2018 | Swindon | 3 - 0 | Accrington |
| 06 Feb 2018 | Accrington | 2 - 1 | Swindon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.76 | 56.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |