| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.2% | 72% | -7.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 24.6% | 75.3% |
| logistic | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | Jay Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1620 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1620 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Sciahbasi, Matteo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fabrizio Andaloro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Fabrizio Andaloro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |