| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 58% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.6% | 86% | -11.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.4% | 78% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 43.5% | 57% | -13.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.4% | 27.1% | 24.5% |
| xgboost | 37.6% | 31.3% | 31.1% |
| logistic | 42.2% | 29.7% | 28.1% |
| Cittadella | Lecco | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1380 | 1313 |
| Surface Elo | 1380 | 1313 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 500 | 868 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | ACD Ospitaletto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 May | H | Salernitana | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 May | H | Bari | 3 - 1 | W |
| 04 May | A | Frosinone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 May | H | Brescia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | US Pergolettese Crema | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 May | H | Modena | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 May | A | Brescia | 1 - 4 | L |
| 01 May | H | Sampdoria | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | Parma | 0 - 4 | L |
| 01 Apr 2024 | Lecco | 1 - 1 | Cittadella |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Cittadella | 2 - 1 | Lecco |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |