| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 57% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 59.6% | 40.3% |
| logistic | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Adrian Mannarino | Ignacio Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1828 | 1776 |
| Surface Elo | 1828 | 1776 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.18 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.55 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.91 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Alex Molcan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Quentin Halys | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Quentin Halys | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Ignacio Buse |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 26 Oct 06:15 |