| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.4% | 81% | -22.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.4% | 63.5% |
| logistic | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Mathys Erhard | Oliver Tarvet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1528 | 1649 |
| Surface Elo | 1528 | 1649 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 41 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Alberto Barroso Campos | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Theate, Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Patrick Zahraj | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 1 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Benjamin Pietri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Charles Broom | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Emile Hudd | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Oliver Bonding | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.23 | 81.3% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.85 | 26.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |