| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.8% | 60% | +1.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.5% | 62.4% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Pierluigi Basile | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1507 | 1551 |
| Surface Elo | 1507 | 1551 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Kai Wehnelt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Imanol Lopez Morillo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Imanol Lopez Morillo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Tom Gentzsch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Martin Krumich | 2 - 0 | Pierluigi Basile |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |