| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.4% | 61% | +2.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.7% | 87% | +3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 86.4% | 79% | +6.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 45% | +7.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 51.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 74.7% | 17.0% | 8.4% |
| xgboost | 58.0% | 28.5% | 13.5% |
| logistic | 74.7% | 18.2% | 7.1% |
| Napoli | Spezia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1771 | 1388 |
| Surface Elo | 1771 | 1388 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 168 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Bodoe/Glimt | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Venezia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bari | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Venezia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Villarreal | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Ravenna FC 1913 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | AS Gubbio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | SS Monopoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Reggiana | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Pescara | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Feb 2023 | Spezia | 0 - 3 | Napoli |
| 10 Sep 2022 | Napoli | 1 - 0 | Spezia |
| 22 May 2022 | Spezia | 0 - 3 | Napoli |
| 22 Dec 2021 | Napoli | 0 - 1 | Spezia |
| 08 May 2021 | Spezia | 1 - 4 | Napoli |
| 06 Jan 2021 | Napoli | 1 - 2 | Spezia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.58 | 63.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |