| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 38.2% | 42% | -3.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.1% | 36.3% |
| xgboost | 35.6% | 63.3% |
| logistic | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Nashville Predators | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1366 | 1474 |
| Surface Elo | 1366 | 1474 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Ottawa Senators | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | New York Islanders | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 3 | L |
| 15 Apr | A | Ottawa Senators | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Dallas Stars | 5 - 6 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Dallas Stars | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Apr | H | Anaheim Ducks | 4 - 5 | L |
| 14 Apr | H | San Jose Sharks | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Apr | H | Minnesota Wild | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Nashville Predators | 5 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 14 Oct 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 - 4 | Nashville Predators |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Nashville Predators | 5 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 05 Dec 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 2 | Nashville Predators |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 06 Oct 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.38 | 42.0% | 06 Oct 21:20 |