| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.3% | 70% | -9.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| logistic | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Matthew William Donald | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1565 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1565 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Olle Wallin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Martin Krumich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Imanol Lopez Morillo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Imanol Lopez Morillo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Martin Krumich | 1 - 2 | Matthew William Donald |
| 02 Feb 2026 | Martin Krumich | 2 - 0 | Matthew William Donald |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.42 | 70.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |