| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.4% | 56% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| logistic | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Andrea Guerrieri | Abdullah Shelbayh | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1661 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1661 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.91 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.36 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.82 |
| Rest days | 10 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Anton Matusevich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Daniil Glinka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Daniil Glinka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | Andrea Guerrieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 12 Oct 06:15 |