| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.1% | 91% | -15.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| logistic | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Filip Misolic | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1654 | 1437 |
| Surface Elo | 1654 | 1437 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Baquero, Martin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Michele Ribecai | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Izan Almazan Valiente | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Felix Gill | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Franco Ribero | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Matteo Covato | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.10 | 16.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.10 | 90.9% | 26 Oct 06:15 |