| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 75.0% | 97% | -22.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| logistic | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| Tomas Farjat | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1450 | 1661 |
| Surface Elo | 1450 | 1661 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | A | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Jun | A | Franco Roncadelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Jun | A | Maximus Jones | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tomas Farjat | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Francesco Passaro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 1 | Tomas Farjat |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.03 | 97.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 9.90 | 10.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |