| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.8% | 76% | -10.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| logistic | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| Daniel Michalski | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1542 | 1353 |
| Surface Elo | 1542 | 1353 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 24 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | H | Crisostomo, G | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Daniel Michalski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Petr Brunclik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jun | H | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Daniel Michalski | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Carboni |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 24 Sep 06:15 |