| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.2% | 61% | +6.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.5% | 85% | +4.4% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 86.5% | 79% | +7.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 56% | -5.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 67.2% | 22.3% | 10.5% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Nottingham Forest | Coventry | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1709 | 1638 |
| Surface Elo | 1709 | 1638 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Tottenham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | Leeds | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 May | H | Bournemouth | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Brighton | 0 - 5 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Manchester City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Hull | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 May | A | Watford | 4 - 0 | W |
| 06 Apr 2022 | Nottingham Forest | 2 - 0 | Coventry |
| 08 Aug 2021 | Coventry | 2 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 02 Feb 2021 | Coventry | 1 - 2 | Nottingham Forest |
| 04 Nov 2020 | Nottingham Forest | 2 - 1 | Coventry |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.48 | 18.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.18 | 23.9% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.78 | 56.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |