| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.8% | 38% | +6.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 71.5% | 76% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.7% | 54% | +5.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 55% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.1% | 29.3% | 26.6% |
| xgboost | 35.5% | 30.8% | 33.7% |
| logistic | 34.6% | 30.0% | 35.4% |
| Exeter | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1393 | 1397 |
| Surface Elo | 1393 | 1397 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rovers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Tranmere | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Tranmere | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Northampton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Northampton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Exeter | 0 - 4 | Rotherham |
| 06 Sep 2025 | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | Exeter |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | Exeter |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Exeter | 1 - 0 | Rotherham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |