OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-08
⚽ Primeira Liga · Sunday 08 November 2026, 20:30 UTC · finished
Estrela 0.20 2 - 3 2.40 Benfica
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 74.8%80%-5.6%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 88.8%96%-7.3%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 86.9%94%-7.5%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.3%70%-12.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson9.4%14.2%76.4%
xgboost12.2%11.8%76.0%
logistic7.8%16.8%75.4%
Inputs the models saw
EstrelaBenfica
Elo (pre-match)14361866
Surface Elo14361866
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.202.40
Form trend0.20-0.30
Season points per game1.002.50
Season goals for / game1.502.70
Season goals against / game1.900.80
Rest days86
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W6 W · 0 D
Estrela: last 5
08 NovASC Salgueiros0 - 1L
31 OctAMoreirense1 - 2L
31 OctAMoreirense1 - 2L
25 OctHCF Uniao de Lamas1 - 2L
24 OctHCasa Pia0 - 2L
Benfica: last 5
08 NovAFarense3 - 2W
05 NovHKKS Lech Poznan3 - 1W
02 NovHAlverca1 - 0W
31 OctHChaves3 - 1W
29 OctHGil Vicente4 - 1W
Head to head
25 Jan 2026Benfica4 - 0Estrela
16 Aug 2025Estrela0 - 1Benfica
02 Feb 2025Estrela2 - 3Benfica
24 Aug 2024Benfica1 - 0Estrela
29 Jan 2024Estrela1 - 4Benfica
19 Aug 2023Benfica2 - 0Estrela
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.1984.0%08 Nov 20:30
Bet3651X2draw6.5015.4%08 Nov 20:30
Bet3651X2home11.009.1%08 Nov 20:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3375.2%08 Nov 20:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.4029.4%08 Nov 20:30
SportyBet1X2away1.2679.4%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.9014.5%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home11.029.1%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3971.9%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.1032.3%08 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:01 UTC