OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-20
⚽ Portugal Liga Portugal · Sunday 20 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished
Estoril 0.20 1 - 2 0.20 Casa Pia
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 65.0%no line✗ miss
DCHome or draw 87.5%no line✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 82.0%no line✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 50.8%no line✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 49.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.0%24.5%20.5%
xgboost46.3%27.7%25.9%
logistic51.2%27.5%21.3%
Inputs the models saw
EstorilCasa Pia
Elo (pre-match)14691416
Surface Elo14691416
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.200.20
Form trend-0.10-0.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days57
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W1 W · 4 D
Estoril: last 5
14 SepASp Braga0 - 1L
07 SepHArouca0 - 0D
31 AugABenfica1 - 2L
22 AugHRio Ave0 - 2L
16 AugANacional0 - 2L
Casa Pia: last 5
12 SepHPorto1 - 4L
06 SepAGuimaraes0 - 0D
30 AugHMoreirense0 - 1L
24 AugAGil Vicente0 - 2L
17 AugHBenfica0 - 7L
Head to head
07 Mar 2026Estoril0 - 0Casa Pia
03 Oct 2025Casa Pia2 - 2Estoril
29 Apr 2025Casa Pia1 - 3Estoril
15 Dec 2024Estoril0 - 2Casa Pia
08 Apr 2024Casa Pia0 - 0Estoril
10 Nov 2023Estoril4 - 0Casa Pia
21 May 2023Casa Pia2 - 2Estoril
16 Jan 2023Estoril2 - 0Casa Pia
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
No bookmaker lines stored.
Generated 2026-10-30 20:28 UTC