| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.1% | 76% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Nishesh Basavareddy | Andres Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1669 | 1589 |
| Surface Elo | 1669 | 1589 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Hance, Keaton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Mees Rottgering | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Dylan Dietrich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Andy Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Darwin Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Nov | H | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov | H | Federico Agustin Gomez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov | H | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.15 | 31.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 25 Sep 06:15 |