| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 74% | -19.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.5% | 90% | -12.4% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.9% | 88% | -17.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 71% | -12.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.3% | 22.0% | 29.7% |
| xgboost | 56.0% | 22.1% | 21.8% |
| logistic | 56.6% | 25.5% | 17.8% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1716 | 1720 |
| Surface Elo | 1716 | 1720 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | H | Stuttgart | 2 - 4 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Stuttgart | 2 - 4 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | 1 FC Nuremberg | 5 - 2 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Hoffenheim | 0 - 3 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Hoffenheim | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Toulouse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Toulouse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Le Havre | 4 - 3 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Le Havre | 4 - 3 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Sturm Graz | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 9.09 | 11.0% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.48 | 15.4% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.39 | 71.9% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 05 Nov 06:15 |