| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.7% | 52% | +7.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.8% | 42.1% |
| logistic | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Yanaki Milev | Federico Iannaccone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1588 | 1490 |
| Surface Elo | 1588 | 1490 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Maxime Chazal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Ivan Gakhov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Consolo, Simone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Giovanni Oradini | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.82 | 54.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |