| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.2% | 50% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| logistic | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Alex Marti Pujolras | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1429 | 1506 |
| Surface Elo | 1429 | 1506 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Izan Almazan Valiente | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Sandro Kopp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Andrej Nedic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Vrba, Jakub | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Dmitry Popko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Marti Pujolras | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Federico Iannaccone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Alex Marti Pujolras | 2 - 1 | Pierluigi Basile |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.76 | 56.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |