| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.8% | 69% | -16.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.7% | 54.2% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Valentin Vacherot | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1889 | 1801 |
| Surface Elo | 1889 | 1801 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | H | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Tommy Paul | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Tommy Paul | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Aug 2026 | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | Valentin Vacherot |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Mariano Navone | 0 - 2 | Valentin Vacherot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 25 Oct 06:15 |