| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.1% | 81% | -19.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| logistic | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| Blake Ellis | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1712 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1712 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 10 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Sep | H | Hiroki Moriya | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Ilia Simakin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Hiroki Moriya | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Max Purcell | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Benjamin O'Connell | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Hunter Heck | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Cruz Hewitt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Timofei Derepasko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Blake Ellis | 0 - 2 | Ilia Simakin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.24 | 80.7% | 16 Sep 23:42 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.80 | 26.3% | 16 Sep 23:42 |