| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.7% | 48% | +11.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| logistic | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Stefano Travaglia | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1608 | 1631 |
| Surface Elo | 1608 | 1631 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Stefano Napolitano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Aug | A | Nicolas Kicker | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Luka Mikrut | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Marco Cecchinato | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | Stefano Travaglia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |