| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.4% | 61% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.5% | 86% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.8% | 80% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 55% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.9% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| xgboost | 59.4% | 27.1% | 13.5% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 24.4% | 19.9% |
| Lazio | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1752 | 1562 |
| Surface Elo | 1752 | 1562 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Ac Milan | 2 - 2 | D |
| 07 Sep | A | Udinese | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Genoa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Bologna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Sassuolo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Lecce | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Parma | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Udinese | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Inter | 1 - 4 | L |
| 09 Feb 2025 | Lazio | 5 - 1 | Monza |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Monza | 0 - 1 | Lazio |
| 04 May 2024 | Monza | 2 - 2 | Lazio |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Lazio | 1 - 1 | Monza |
| 02 Apr 2023 | Monza | 0 - 2 | Lazio |
| 10 Nov 2022 | Lazio | 1 - 0 | Monza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.04 | 19.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.04 | 24.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.78 | 56.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |