| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 61% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| logistic | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Michele Ribecai | Jacopo Vasami | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1527 | 1574 |
| Surface Elo | 1527 | 1574 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 84 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filip Misolic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Max Houkes | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Jacopo Vasami | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Michele Ribecai | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Jun | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | A | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Jacopo Vasami | 1 - 2 | Michele Ribecai |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 19 Oct 06:15 |