| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.8% | 94% | -23.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 10.5% | 89.5% |
| logistic | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Charles Chen | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1408 | 1542 |
| Surface Elo | 1408 | 1542 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 11 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | H | Andrea Colombo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Salvestre, D | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Daniel Evans | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 May | H | Yusuke Takahashi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Apr | H | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Goncalo Marques | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Marko Topo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Goncalo Marques | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.06 | 94.3% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 8.10 | 12.3% | 04 Oct 06:15 |