| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 87.6% | 78% | +9.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 77.5% | 22.4% |
| logistic | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| Marvin Moeller | Aziz Ouakaa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1679 | 1474 |
| Surface Elo | 1679 | 1474 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.93 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Nov | H | Nikolai Barsukov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Nov | A | John Echeverria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Lilian Marmousez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Nicolas Tepmahc | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Nicolas John Jadoun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Oct | H | Nicolas Garcia Longo | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 12 Nov 06:15 |