OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-23
⚽ Portugal Liga Portugal · Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Guimaraes 0.40 5 - 0 0.20 Maritimo
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.1%60%-5.8%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 80.5%85%-4.4%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 72.2%79%-6.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.8%54%+2.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson49.2%26.6%24.2%
xgboost50.4%25.1%24.4%
logistic64.8%22.1%13.1%
Inputs the models saw
GuimaraesMaritimo
Elo (pre-match)14801430
Surface Elo14801430
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.400.20
Form trend0.00-0.10
Season points per game0.500.50
Season goals for / game0.501.00
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days1213
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W0 W · 2 D
Guimaraes: last 5
17 OctAAcdr Lamelas1 - 0W
11 OctABenfica0 - 2L
11 OctABenfica0 - 2L
11 OctHPacos Ferreira0 - 1L
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
Maritimo: last 5
18 OctAAlcochetense2 - 1W
10 OctHPorto1 - 2L
10 OctHPorto1 - 2L
19 SepAGil Vicente1 - 1D
19 SepAGil Vicente1 - 1D
Head to head
29 Apr 2023Maritimo1 - 2Guimaraes
13 Nov 2022Guimaraes1 - 0Maritimo
13 Mar 2022Maritimo0 - 1Guimaraes
22 Oct 2021Guimaraes2 - 1Maritimo
16 May 2021Maritimo0 - 0Guimaraes
31 Jan 2021Guimaraes1 - 0Maritimo
19 Jul 2020Guimaraes1 - 0Maritimo
12 Jan 2020Maritimo0 - 0Guimaraes
04 Mar 2019Guimaraes1 - 0Maritimo
06 Oct 2018Maritimo1 - 3Guimaraes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.7817.3%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0424.8%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6461.0%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0050.0%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8354.6%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC