| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.8% | 87% | -18.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 85.6% | 14.3% |
| logistic | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1568 | 1433 |
| Surface Elo | 1568 | 1433 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nicolas Villalon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Santiago De La Fuente | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Franco Ribero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Milani, Bruno | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |