| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.7% | 67% | -8.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 58.9% | 41.0% |
| logistic | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Marco Cecchinato | Henri Squire | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1681 | 1594 |
| Surface Elo | 1681 | 1594 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | H | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Henri Squire | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Marco Cecchinato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Filip Misolic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Filip Cristian Jianu | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Tom Gentzsch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Henri Squire | 0 - 2 | Marco Cecchinato |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 15 Sep 09:05 |