| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.2% | 58% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.8% | 37.1% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Rafael Jodar | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2000 | 1962 |
| Surface Elo | 2000 | 1962 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Casper Ruud | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Learner Tien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Learner Tien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Casper Ruud | 1 - 2 | Rafael Jodar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |