OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-29

🎾 WTA Tokyo, Japan Women Singles · Thursday 29 October 2026, 01:30 UTC · finished

Leylah Fernandez 2.40 2 - 0 0.60 Elise Mertens

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	58.2%	52%	+6.1%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	52.1%	47.9%
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	58.4%	41.5%
logistic	64.8%	35.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Leylah Fernandez	Elise Mertens
Elo (pre-match)	1827	1734
Surface Elo	1827	1734
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	0.60
Form trend	0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	2.40	1.67
Season goals for / game	1.73	1.22
Season goals against / game	0.73	1.11
Rest days	2	3
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	2 W · 0 D

Leylah Fernandez: last 5

27 Oct	H	Himeno Sakatsume	2 - 0	W
25 Oct	A	Elena Rybakina	0 - 2	L
24 Oct	H	Marie Bouzkova	2 - 0	W
23 Oct	H	Ekaterina Alexandrova	2 - 1	W
21 Oct	H	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2 - 1	W

Elise Mertens: last 5

26 Oct	A	Moyuka Uchijima	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Leylah Fernandez	1 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Leylah Fernandez	1 - 2	L
13 Oct	A	Daria Snigur	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	A	Daria Snigur	0 - 2	L

Head to head

19 Oct 2026	Elise Mertens	1 - 2	Leylah Fernandez
19 Oct 2026	Elise Mertens	1 - 2	Leylah Fernandez
17 Feb 2025	Elise Mertens	2 - 0	Leylah Fernandez
18 Sep 2023	Elise Mertens	0 - 2	Leylah Fernandez
08 Feb 2021	Elise Mertens	2 - 0	Leylah Fernandez

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.93	51.8%	28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.92	52.1%	28 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:00 UTC