| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.1% | 62% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.0% | 87% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.5% | 81% | -9.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 60% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.9% | 20.3% | 22.8% |
| xgboost | 47.7% | 29.2% | 23.1% |
| logistic | 52.8% | 23.8% | 23.3% |
| Harrogate | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1381 | 1420 |
| Surface Elo | 1381 | 1420 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.78 | 1.56 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.22 | 1.22 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.78 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 4 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Fylde | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Tamworth | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Scunthorpe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Carlisle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Carlisle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Sutton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Boreham Wood | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Feb 2020 | Harrogate | 3 - 0 | Eastleigh |
| 02 Nov 2019 | Eastleigh | 4 - 2 | Harrogate |
| 22 Dec 2018 | Eastleigh | 2 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 01 Sep 2018 | Harrogate | 4 - 0 | Eastleigh |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.90 | 20.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |