| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.0% | 84% | -26.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| logistic | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| John Sperle | Matthias Ujvary | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1402 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1402 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Franco Agamenone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Nikita Mashtakov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Mauro Mavracic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Apr | A | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Nov | A | Leo Borg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Tim Handel | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |