| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.2% | 75% | -19.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.9% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Pavel Lagutin | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1506 | 1568 |
| Surface Elo | 1506 | 1568 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 2.18 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.55 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| Rest days | 3 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Federico Iannaccone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Maxime Chazal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |