OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
⚽ League Two · Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Exeter 2.00 2 - 1 0.80 Fleetwood Town
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 43.0%41%+1.7%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 73.2%73%+0.4%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 57.0%58%-1.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 60.5%57%+3.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 55.7%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson38.7%36.0%25.3%
xgboost37.0%32.6%30.4%
logistic36.5%30.0%33.5%
Inputs the models saw
ExeterFleetwood Town
Elo (pre-match)14441419
Surface Elo14441419
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.000.80
Form trend-0.40-0.30
Season points per game1.331.17
Season goals for / game0.671.17
Season goals against / game0.501.25
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W1 W · 2 D
Exeter: last 5
20 OctHCrewe2 - 0W
17 OctAColchester0 - 0D
10 OctAShrewsbury1 - 0W
10 OctAShrewsbury1 - 0W
06 OctHOxford2 - 2D
Fleetwood Town: last 5
20 OctACheltenham2 - 4L
20 OctACheltenham2 - 4L
17 OctHRotherham2 - 0W
17 OctHRotherham2 - 0W
10 OctHWalsall1 - 1D
Head to head
24 Feb 2024Exeter1 - 1Fleetwood Town
11 Nov 2023Fleetwood Town3 - 0Exeter
01 Apr 2023Fleetwood Town2 - 2Exeter
22 Oct 2022Exeter2 - 1Fleetwood Town
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.8235.5%24 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.1032.3%24 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.4041.7%24 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.0349.3%24 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8354.6%24 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.0033.3%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.2530.8%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3542.5%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0548.8%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7357.8%24 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC