| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 41.8% | 45% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 75% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.1% | 61% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 56% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.1% | 26.5% | 39.3% |
| xgboost | 32.1% | 32.4% | 35.5% |
| logistic | 39.9% | 27.9% | 32.2% |
| Malaga | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1631 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1631 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Atletico Mancha Real | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Arenas Armilla CD | 1 - 5 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Espanol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Espanol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | FC Marbelli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Almeria | 2 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | CD Aurrera de Vitoria | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Union Gilloise | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | RC Deportivo de A Coruna | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | La Coruna | 3 - 2 | W |
| 22 Apr 2018 | Malaga | 2 - 0 | Sociedad |
| 10 Dec 2017 | Sociedad | 0 - 2 | Malaga |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.24 | 44.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.58 | 27.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.29 | 30.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.77 | 56.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |