| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.0% | 47% | +1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.0% | 78% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.6% | 64% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 43.1% | 49% | -5.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.3% | 25.5% | 38.2% |
| xgboost | 37.3% | 31.1% | 31.6% |
| logistic | 40.4% | 29.7% | 29.9% |
| Ceuta | Sociedad B | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1437 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1437 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Burgos | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Celta B | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Mallorca | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Mallorca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Andorra | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Tenerife | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Burgos | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Albacete | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Ceuta | 0 - 0 | Sociedad B |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Sociedad B | 1 - 3 | Ceuta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 26 Sep 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 26 Sep 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 26 Sep 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 26 Sep 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 26 Sep 13:00 |