| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.2% | 59% | +3.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.8% | 46.0% |
| logistic | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| Luca Potenza | Eric Vanshelboim | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1504 | 1424 |
| Surface Elo | 1504 | 1424 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 30 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Oriol Roca Batalla | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Ignacio Parisca | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Alvarez Valdes, Luis Carlos | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Gianmarco Ferrari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Calvin Hemery | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 12 Nov 06:15 |