| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.7% | 43% | +2.7% | |
| DC | Home or away | 75.5% | 78% | -2.9% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.8% | 58% | +1.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 65% | -8.7% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.6% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.7% | 24.2% | 33.1% |
| xgboost | 42.7% | 26.8% | 30.5% |
| logistic | 41.4% | 28.3% | 30.3% |
| Plymouth | Reading | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1580 | 1536 |
| Surface Elo | 1580 | 1536 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Cambridge | 3 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cambridge | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Stevenage | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Stevenage | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Wigan | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Reading | 2 - 2 | Plymouth |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Plymouth | 1 - 4 | Reading |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |