| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.2% | 59% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 60.0% | 39.9% |
| logistic | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Learner Tien | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1948 | 1945 |
| Surface Elo | 1948 | 1945 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Casper Ruud | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Zachary Svajda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Zachary Svajda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Learner Tien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Bu Yunchaokete | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Yunchaokete Bu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | Learner Tien |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |