OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
⚽ England Championship · Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Cardiff 1.40 1 - 0 2.60 Birmingham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 43.7%37%+6.3%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.7%77%-2.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 55.0%50%+4.7%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.8%63%-2.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.8%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson38.4%26.6%35.0%
xgboost30.8%30.6%38.6%
logistic46.4%26.5%27.1%
Inputs the models saw
CardiffBirmingham
Elo (pre-match)15531617
Surface Elo15531617
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.60
Form trend-0.20-0.20
Season points per game1.752.50
Season goals for / game2.752.50
Season goals against / game1.500.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Cardiff: last 5
17 OctAMiddlesbrough2 - 2D
17 OctAMiddlesbrough2 - 2D
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
13 OctHWatford5 - 1W
10 OctABlackburn1 - 2L
Birmingham: last 5
17 OctHQPR3 - 0W
17 OctHQPR3 - 0W
13 OctHPreston4 - 0W
13 OctHPreston North End4 - 0W
10 OctAWest Brom1 - 0W
Head to head
10 Apr 2024Birmingham0 - 1Cardiff
13 Dec 2023Cardiff0 - 1Birmingham
14 Feb 2023Birmingham0 - 2Cardiff
13 Aug 2022Cardiff1 - 0Birmingham
30 Apr 2022Cardiff1 - 1Birmingham
11 Dec 2021Birmingham2 - 2Cardiff
01 May 2021Birmingham0 - 4Cardiff
16 Dec 2020Cardiff3 - 2Birmingham
18 Jan 2020Birmingham1 - 1Cardiff
02 Nov 2019Cardiff4 - 2Birmingham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.5040.0%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7826.5%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.7336.6%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5962.9%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:57 UTC