| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 79.4% | 83% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.8% | 16.1% |
| logistic | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Hugo Gaston | Daniel Jade | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1784 | 1511 |
| Surface Elo | 1784 | 1511 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 15 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Adrien Gobat | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Etienne Donnet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Kenny De Schepper | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Daniel Jade | 0 - 2 | Hugo Gaston |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.40 | 22.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |