| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.4% | 28% | +22.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 78% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.7% | 36% | +29.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 70% | -10.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.2% | 26.9% | 33.9% |
| xgboost | 51.5% | 25.5% | 23.0% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 23.9% | 23.7% |
| Roma | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1839 | 1849 |
| Surface Elo | 1839 | 1849 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Como | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Como | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Inter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Sep | A | Torino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Atalanta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | SDA Tordesillas | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Villarreal | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Villarreal | 1 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | CD Guadalajara B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 3 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.02 | 49.5% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.57 | 28.0% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 14 Oct 06:15 |