| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.3% | 67% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.5% | 29.4% |
| logistic | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Spencer Johnson | Erik Arutiunian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1567 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1567 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 25 | 26 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Vrba, Jakub | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Andre Ilagan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Andres Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Trevor Svajda | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Trevor Svajda | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |